How to read and interpret a weekly economic calendar - Books and Major Indicators

 Books

Beige Book - District banks have been printing summaries of the economic conditions in their

districts since 1970. Initially this “Red Book” was prepared for policymakers only and was not intended for public consumption. It was made public in 1983. To mark this change, the color of the cover was changed and the publication became known as the Beige Book. The Beige Book is released two weeks prior to each FOMC meeting eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its district through reports from bank and branch directors and interviews with key businessmen, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by district and sector. An overall summary of the twelve district reports is prepared by a designated Federal Reserve Bank on a rotating basis. The report is primarily seen as an indicator of how the Fed might act at its upcoming meeting.

Green Book - The green book is prepared by staff members at the Board of Governors five days in advance of an FOMC meeting. It presents the staff’s interpretations on several economic and financial variables and is divided into two parts. The first part of the green book describes and interprets significant developments in U.S. economic activity, prices, interest rates, flows of money and credit, and the international sector that have occurred in recent months or quarters. This section also presents forecasts of a number of variables for the next six to eight quarters. The second section of the green book provides additional information on recent developments. It describes trends in employment, production, and prices and the factors influencing them. This section also includes sector-by-sector analyses, commenting on such areas as housing, motor vehicle production, inventories, and spending by federal, state, and local governments. It reviews a range of developments in domestic financial markets, including credit patterns for banks, other financial intermediaries, non-financial businesses, and consumers. Finally, international developments are reviewed, with commentary on trade statistics, international financial transactions, foreign exchange markets, and economic activity in a number of foreign countries.

Blue Book – A day after the green book, the FOMC members receive the blue book. All blue books present the Board staff’s view of monetary and financial developments for the few months surrounding the meeting in question. Each book first reviews recent developments in policy variables, including the Federal Funds rate, reserve measures, and the monetary aggregates. The blue book also presents two or three alternative policy scenarios for the upcoming inter-meeting period. The blue books written for the February and July meetings contain two extra sections to assist the Committee in its preparation for the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. The first of these sections provides longer term simulations, covering the next five or six years. This section also offers estimates of how different assumptions about factors such as fiscal policy, the equilibrium unemployment rate, or the speed of adjustment to changed inflationary expectations would affect the predicted outcome. The second additional section in the February and July blue books sets out alternative annual ranges for growth of the monetary aggregates.

Red Book - Published every Tuesday, this report presents the detail sales of some 30 US stores produce the previous week and compared to the previous month. It is always a forecast which counts for the request of the households but a rather volatile measurement taking into consideration the more or less significant months for the detail business.

Durable goods order – The durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hardwoods. Orders for durable goods show how busy factories will be in the months to come, as manufacturers work to fill those orders. The data not only provides insight to demand for things like refrigerators and cars, but also business investment going forward. If companies commit to spending more on equipment and other capital, they are obviously experiencing sustainable growth in their business. Increased expenditures on investment goods set the stage for greater productive capacity in the country and reduce the prospects for inflation. It tells investors what to expect from the manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy and therefore a major influence on their investments.

Existing home sales – Number of previously constructed homes with a closed sale during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) are a large share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends. This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Even though home resales don’t always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales date carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.

Factory orders – Dollar level of new orders for manufacturing durable goods and nondurable goods. It gives more complete information than durable goods orders which are reported one or two weeks earlier in the month. The orders data show how busy factories will be in coming months as manufacturers work to fill those orders. This report provides insight to the demand for not only hard goods such as refrigerators and cars, but nondurables such as cigarettes and apparel. In addition to new orders, analysts monitor unfilled orders, an indicator of the backlog in production. Shipments reveal current sales. Inventories give a handle on the strength of current and future production. All in all, this report tells investors what to expect from the manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy and therefore a major influence on their investments.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – The sum of all goods and services produced either by domestic or foreign companies. GDP indicates the pace at which a country’s economy is growing (or shrinking) and is considered the broadest indicator of economic output and growth. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. GDP components like consumer spending, business and residential investments and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy’s undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Housing starts – Housing starts measure the number of residential units on which construction is begun each month. Home builders don’t start a house unless they are fairly confident it will sell upon or before its competition. Changes in the rate of housing starts tell us a lot about demand for homes and the outlook for the construction industry. Furthermore, each time a new home is started, construction employment rises and income will be pumped back into the economy. Once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers and dryers, furniture and landscaping are just a few things new home buyers might spend money on, so the economic “ripple effect” can be substantial especially when you think of it in terms of a hundred thousand new households around the country doing this every month. Trends in the housing starts date carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies. Commodity prices such as lumber are also very sensitive to housing industry trends.

IFO Business Climate in industry and trade – The IFO Business Climate Index is a widely early indicator for economic development in Germany. Every month the IFO Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises in west and east Germany on their appraisals of the business situation (good/satisfactory/poor) and their expectations for the next six months (better/same/worse). The replies are weighted according to the importance of the industry and aggregated. The percentage shares of the positive and negative responses to both questions are balanced and a geometric mean is formed from the balances divided according to east and west Germany. The series of balances thus derived are linked to a base year (currently 1991) and seasonally adjusted.

Import and export prices – The prices of goods that are brought in the United States but produced abroad and the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products. Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar. Inflation leads to higher interest rates and that’s bad news for stocks as well. By monitoring inflation gauges such as import prices, investors can keep an eye on this menace to their portfolio.

Industrial production and capacity utilization – The Index of Industrial Production is a chain-weight measure of the physical output of the nation’s factories, mines and utilities. The capacity utilization rate reflects the usage of available resources. Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. Industrial production show how much factories, mines and utilities are producing. Since the manufacturing sector accounts for one-quarter of the economy, this report has a big influence on market behaviour. The capacity utilization rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use. If the utilization rate gets too high (above 85%) it can lead to inflationary bottlenecks in production. The Federal Reserve watches this report closely and sets interest rate policy on the basis of whether production constraints are threatening to cause inflationary pressures.

International Trade – Measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact all the financial markets, but especially the foreign exchange value of the dollar. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services here and the US exports show the demand for US goods in overseas countries. The dollar can be particularly sensitive to changes in the chronic trade deficit run by the United States, since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. This report gives a breakdown of US trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.

are you interested in this part so check out more about it: 

successful trading session part 1 

Major Indicators part 2 

Major Indicators part4  

© 1st Forex Trading Academy

How to read and interpret a weekly economic calendar - Major Indicators

Major Indicators

APICS Survey – Composite diffusion index of national manufacturing conditions. The APICS survey gives a detailed look at the manufacturing sector. This survey is less well known that the ISM, but can also indicate trends in production. The diffusion index does not move in tandem with the ISM index every month, but sometimes the two do move in the same direction. Since manufacturing is a major sector of economy, investors can get a feel for the general economic backdrop for various investments. An index level of 50 means no growth, but every 10 points signals gains of 4% in manufacturing.

Business Inventories – Dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers. The level of inventories in relation to sales is an important indicator of the near-term direction of production activity. Investors need to monitor the economy closely because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. Rising inventories can be an indication of business optimism that sales will be growing in the coming months. By looking at the ratio of inventories to sales, investors can see whether production demands will expand or contract in the near future. The business inventory data provide a valuable forward-looking tool for tracking the economy.

Chain Stores Sales – Monthly sales volumes from department, chain, discount and apparel stores. Sales are reported by the individual retailers. Chain store sales are an indicator of retail sales and consumer spending results. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Sales are reported as a change from the same month a year ago. It is important to know how strong sales actually were a year ago to make sense of this year’s sales. In addition, sales are usually reported for “comparable stores” in case of company mergers.

Construction Spending– Dollar value of the new construction activity on residential, non-residential and public projects. Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Businesses only put money into construction of new factories or offices when they are confident that demand is strong enough to justify the expansion. The same goes for individuals making the investment in a home. That’s why construction spending is a good indicator of the economy’s momentum.

Consumer Confidence – Survey of consumer attitudes concerning both the present situation as well as expectations regarding economic conditions conducted by The Conference Board. Five thousand consumers across the country are surveyed each month. The level of consumer confidence is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it’s easy to see how this index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the direction of the economy. Changes in consumer confidence and retail sales don’t move in tandem month by month.

Consumer sentiment – Survey of consumer attitudes concerning both the present situation as well as expectations regarding economic conditions conducted by the University of Michigan. Five hundred consumers are surveyed each month. The level of consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it’s easy to see how the index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the direction of the economy. Changes in consumer sentiment and retail sales don’t move in tandem month by month.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. The CPI is the most followed indicator of inflation in the United States. Inflation is a general increase in the price of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how data like the CPI influence the markets. By tracking the trends in inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform.

Current account – Measure of the country’s international trade balance in goods, services and unilateral transfers. The level of the current account, as well as the trends in exports and imports, are followed as indicators of trends in foreign trade. U.S. trade with foreign countries hold important clues to economic trends here and abroad. The data can directly impact all the financial markets, but especially the foreign exchange value of the dollar.

are you interested in this part so check out more about it: 

successful trading session part 1 

Books part 3 

Major Indicators part4  

© 1st Forex Trading Academy

How to read and interpret a weekly economic calendar - trading session

How to read and interpret a weekly economic calendar

In order to explain to you the importance of an economic calendar, let’s read a little scenario to measure the impact of not using this great tool.

You’ve got a successful trading session, but why are you losing? 

You’ve done your homework.
Countless hours of seeking out the right guru (or piecing together your own system). Weeks of monitoring your guru’s daily trade picks (or paper-trading and back-testing your homemade system).

You’ve done it by the book. No seat of the pants trading for you!

OK, now you’re confident. It’s time to put your money where your homework is. You’ve had your coffee and your first trade signal is before you.

Confidence high. Trade made. First loss. Not a problem. You understood before you started that successful traders both win and lose and “losing is part of the overall winning”. You’ve also heard more then once that “successful traders don’t win on every trade.”

Moving on, still confident. Next trade made. Another loss, but this one hurt your pride a little because you got stopped out early in the trade, and then the market rebounded and would have hit your profit target if you weren’t stopped out. You double check. Yep, you placed the stop where your trading system told you to place it. You kind of had a feeling that the early weakness in the market was just profit-taking from the previous day’s trading, but you’re trading a system and you must stick to it. Wounded, but resilient.

After a good night’s sleep and a few mouse clicks, your new daily trades are in front of you. Hey, this one looks good! It’s a little bit more risk than yesterday’s trades had, but look at that profit potential! With a smiling face, the trade is executed. With a nice start to the trade, you’re feeling good and you’ve moved your stop to breakeven, just like your system said.

Surprise piece of news – market reverses – blows through your stop – an “unexpected” loss. Is something wrong with the system? Has the overall market “personality” changed, affecting your system to the Core, rendering all your back-testing irrelevant? Your confidence turns to doubt.

You decide to “watch” the next trade… I mean, isn’t it wise to make sure the system gets back on track before you “throw good money after bad?” Isn’t that what a conservative trader does? Trade watched. It wins! In your head, you beat yourself up a little because you know that when you started your “live” trading, you made an agreement with yourself to take the first 10 trades “no matter what”… and here you wimpled-out and missed a big winner that would have gotten you even.

What’s happening?!!

 

What’s happening is that you are out of control. Your emotions are ruling your trading.

The above scenario plays out in every trader from time to time. New bee and veteran alike. The winning trader senses what is happening and nips it in the bud. The winning trader spend time EVERY DAY, working on “the discipline of trading”. Reads a chapter in his favorite psychological trading book, scans the “ten commandments of trading” that hangs on the wall over his/her desk, listens to his/her mental training software for futures traders… Something… Every Day… before trading begins.

Do not lose your hard earned money, as very often it’s extremely hard to recover it. Fact is that most of the times you just never get it back and instead of making money you will be struggling to recover the losses incurred.

1st Forex trading academy will provide you with a weekly economic calendar and the dose of ammunition to be a winner in the battlefield. The support, resistance levels with possible high and low targets, and to establish the direction of the Forex trading market is our job.

How to read and interpret a weekly economic calendar

The calendar lists the important economic events for the day, by the time at which they occur (or at midnight if they do not have a specific time).

Sections on the different panels below the main display give access to the financial events for each day and time of the current week, indicators and forecast. The calendar always opens on the current day and the displayed date is noted in the Title Bar for the calendar.
The currency displays all events for that week with additional information.

You use technical analysis to trade but the currency markets are driven by major fundamental announcements. Therefore, it is important to know exactly when these announcements will be made so you can take advantage of the big moves that follow or avoid losing through a sudden surprise reaction.

Sometimes consolidation takes place before a major fundamental announcement and you can benefit from a straddle trade. Economic calendars show in advance what time the economic data release will take place.

If traders are expecting an interest rate to rise and it does, there usually will not be much of a movement because the information will already have been discounted by the market. However, if the interest rate does not rise as expected, then the market may react violently.

are you interested in this part so check out more about it: 

Major Indicators part 2 

Books part 3 

Major Indicators part4  

© 1st Forex Trading Academy

1-2-3-Trading-Signal let me show you what i mean by this?

Thank you for reading the 1-2-3 Trading Signal. This is, without doubt,
one of the very best chart set up patterns you will ever see. Once you train
your eyes you will see them all over the place. At the beginning of a new
trend. At the end of a retracement. Within a trading range. Within rising or
falling trend.

Like any other pattern they are NOT 100% successful. But out of every
other pattern I have ever come across in my trading career this is by far the
most accurate and most profitable. If you want to become an expert in one
chart pattern set up, this is it!

Whilst these patterns are 95% object ional when you become an expert in
spotting them you may start to introduce a slight subjective analysis into this
pattern. But for the sake of this introduction report I am only going to discuss
a perfect, 100% objective 1-2-3 patterns.

On with the report. This is what I am going to explain to you:

1) What exactly is a 1-2-3 pattern?
2) Which charts and time frames do they exist?
3) The entry “trick”
4) The exit
5) Conclusion
6) Products

You will find this report quite small, compared to my other writings. My
goal here is to define the 1-2-3 patterns and how to trade from it. It is not my
intention to pad the report out and charge double the price.

soon 
keep in touch

© 2002 by Mark Crisp

Conclusion of 1-2-3-Trading-Signal

Chapter 5

Conclusion:

you will know soon alot of things like Below so follow me to know it.

“I have seen the enemy and it is me”

I've been around and around in my trading career. I started off simply
following trends in stocks with sound money management rules. Guess what?
I made money.

Then I embarked on a quest to find the Holy Grail of trading. I attended
literally dozens of seminars. Sadly I have bought many $3,000+ black boxes
trading systems. Purchased hundreds of trading books, reports, files, tapes,
CD's. You name it I probably have it.

JUNK! 99.5% of what I have read, seen, heard or tried simply does not
make money in the stock/futures market. It's all smoke and mirrors to simply
disguise the fact you have been ripped off.

What I have learned:

* No MAN ALIVE, or system on earth can ever, or will ever be able to
predict the future market behavior. If someone tells you they can RUN
AWAY!

* Simplicity is the key. Complicated technical systems are trying to baffle you
into parting with your $$$'s. B*S baffles brains.

* Systems have three main components: 1) trade entry/exit rules. 2) Money
management 3) Trader psychology
95% of traders will put them in the order I wrote above (i.e. in order of
importance.)

I realize now the order of importance is:

1) Trader psychology. If you do not have the correct mindset you are
doomed to failure. Most traders I come across are seeking a get rich quick
scheme. Or wish to make money in the markets with no effort. Then they
wonder why their account is sinking faster than the Titanic. They jump
into the markets with little or no stock market/trading education but expect
to compete with the big boys. Get this. If you enter the stock market with
no education then you are treating it as a gamble. If you gain an education,
test, and adopt a more professional stance, then you are treating it as a
business. Who makes money? Gamblers or business people? It is no
different in the stock market.
2) Money management rules. I could trade solely on money management
rules and come out ahead. I spend most of my time in this area now. It's
that important. I have adopted a much more business like approach to my
trading. The results and MY LIFE have improved dramatically.

3) Trade system: I have my simple systems now. They may need a little
tweaking from time to time but I will not spend any more time seeking out the
Holy Grail trading system. (if you find it... don't tell me about it)

* Trading Really Is a Great Business:

But only when you remove the stress. I've been there when I was hanging
onto every twist and turn of the market. Trading from emotion. Getting
excited about winners and down about losses. Looking back it was not a good
phase of my life. The stress levels were far too high. I gave up hobbies,
friends, social life. I was forever anxious about what might happen to my
positions. Had I have carried on this way I would have been dead or on the
trading scrap heap.

But adopting a more business like approach to trading. Taking time to relax
and plan my trades. Developing the correct mental posture in order to win.
Using sound money management techniques then it actually does become
enjoyable.

You can make your trading career as big as or as small as you wish. Want to
simply manage your own retirement capital? Then trade in the evenings. Or
trade weekly charts and manage your trading account on a Sunday evening.

Want to trade full time? Great. Make sure you have sufficient knowledge capital and experience to do this. Why not?

Want to create a trading empire? It can be done. Get a solid track record, get
some business plans drawn up then go for it.

It can be as big or as small a venture as you are willing to take it.

Good luck and keep learning the stock market business.
Sincerely
Mark Crisp

© 2002 by Mark Crisp